陈昊芝

CHENHAOZHI

超级大满贯CHUKONGKEJITIJIAOSECZHAOGUSHU,ZHUHEHULIANWANGDAPINDUONIANDECHENHAOZHI,YIJIYIXIEQUNJIJIANGJIQUANSHENGTIANDEXIAOHUOBAN。

超级大满贯HAOJIUMEIKANDAOYOUXIGONGSIFUMEISHANGSHILE,TICHUNEIXIEWEILEZAIAGUSHICHANGWANWANGUMINQIANDEGONGSIWAI,ZHEISHIYIJIANRANGYOUXIXINGYEXIDAPUBENDESHI。ZUOWEIYIMINGCENGZAIYOUXIXINGYEDAGUOJINIANSANGONGDEWO,RENBUZHUDESEJIJU,CHENGBUSHANGJIEDU。

一、持续盈利能力?

超级大满贯YOUXIXINGYEDEYINGLINENGLIWUYONGZHIYI,ZAIKEHUDUANWANGYOUDINGSHENGDESHIQI,YOUXIGONGSIMAOLIRUN80%YISHANGDEBIANDIDOUSHI。YITIAN24XIAOSHIXIJINBUDUANDEMEILI,XIYINLEWUSHUDEREQIAN,BUJINYOUGUONEIWAIDEPE、VC,HAIYOULAIZIFANGDICHANDALAO、SHANXIMEILAOBAN、SHENZHINEIXIEBUTAIFANGBIANSHUODETOUZIFANG。DANGSHIYOURENCHENG,YOUXIXINGYEJIUSHIYIGEHULIANWANGJINKUANG,“RENSHAQIANDUO”。

超级大满贯YOUXIXINGYEDEFANRONGYEDAIDONGLEZHOUBIANCHANYEDEFAZHAN,WANGBA、SIFU、DAJINGONGZUOSHI、XUNIJIAOYIPINGTAI、QUDAOSHANGDENG,DANGRANZUIDATOUDEKENDINGSHIYANFASHANGYIJIDAILISHANG。GUONEIKAODAILIYOUXIGONGSISHANGSHIDEQIAOCHUDANGSHUSHENGDA,YEYINWEISHENGDASHANGSHI,31SUIWENDINGZHONGGUOSHOUFU。YEYOUSUOWEIZIZHUYANFA,SHENZHI“ZIYOUYINQING”KAIFADEGONGSI,RUSOUHUCHANGYOU、WANMEISHIJIE、JURENWANGLUO、DIJIUCHENGSHIDENGRUOGANGONGSISHANGSHI。

BUGUO,HAORIZIHENKUAIDAOLEJINTOU。TENGXUNCUIKULAXIUSHIDEDAFA,HENKUAIRANGYOUXIXINGYEDEZHIXUZHONGXINHUADING。YIFEN2007NIANDEYIGUANYOUXIXINGYESHUJUXIANSHI,SHENGDAWANGLUOYI19.3%DESHICHANGFENEGAOJUBANGSHOU,ERTENGXUNZEYI5.5%DESHICHANGFENEPAIWEIDIQI。RUJIN,TENGXUNYIJINGLONGDUANLEZHENGGEYOUXIXINGYEBANBIJIANGSHAN。SHENGDAYOUXINAIZHIZHENGGESHENGDAJITUANDOUJIJIKEWEI。

SHIYISHIYI,GURANYOUTENGXUNFUZHIBINGZHANSHENGDUISHOUDENENGLI,ZISHENWUFAJIEJUECHIXUYINGLIDENENGLICAISHIGENBEN。SHENGDA、JIUCHENG、WANMEI、TAOMIDENGSHANGSHIYOUXIGONGSIZHIJINMEIYOUZHAODAODIERKUANZHICHENGYEJIDECHANPIN。SHENGDACHULECHUANQI,HAISHICHUANQI,ZHIBUGUOYOULECHUANQI3、REXUECHUANQI、CHUANQIWAICHUANDENGDENG。JURENYOULEZHENGTU、LVSEZHENGTU、ZHENGTU2DENG,JIUCHENGMEILEMOSHOU,JIUCHEDIMEILE。

但是,任何一款游戏都是有生命周期的,越往后维护成本越高,盈利能力却持续减弱。一般情况下,客户端网游的生命周期长点,8-10年没问题,普通的3-5年,这些值得是生命周期里持续盈利的。网页游戏的生命周期就短很多,基本上是平均1-2年。移动游戏相对更短。看看捕鱼达人近三年的盈利能力,利润营收占比从90.1%、下滑到53.8%。

YINCI,YOUXIGONGSIYIFANGMIANWANHUIZHIZHUYOUXIDEYONGHU,TONGCHANGZUOFATUIZILIAOPIAN,XINBANBEN、GEZHONGSHICHANGHUODONG,WEIDEJIUSHIWANLIULAOYONGHUHEZHAOHUILIUSHIDELAOYONGHU,LAXINSHIQICI。LINGYIFANGMIAN,BUDUANTUICHENGCHUXIN,TUICHUGEZHONGXINYOUXI,WANYIHUOLENI?DUIBA,SHOUZHUDAITU,ZUOYIDAIBIBUFUHEFUZAODEYOUXIXINGYETEZHENG。BUGUO,ZHEIXIENIANSHISHIZHENGMING,JINGDIANZAINEILI,CONGLAIWEICHAOYUE。

二、资本市场反应

DANCHUNDEYOUXIGAINIAN,ZAIMEIGUOZIBENSHICHANGZAODOUQUEFAXIANGXIANGLILE。HAOZAIZIBENSHICHANGXIANZAIBUSHISHAZILE,BUZAITINGSUOWEIDEZHONGGUOGAINIANGUSHILE,CHIXUDEYINGLINENGLISHITAMENKANZHONGDEYIGEZHONGYAOYINSU。

YOUXIXINGYEQUEFACHIJIUDEYINGLINENGLI,LAOMEITOUZIRENZAOYIJINGKANDAO,YIJINGSHANGSHIDESHENGDA,JUREN、WANMEI、CHANGYOU、JIUCHENGDENGYIJINGJICHUKONGKEJIDUIBIAO。ZHEIXIENIAN,SHENGDA、JURENFENFENSIYOUHUA,YERANGMEITOUZIRENDUIYOUXIGAINIANGUFACHU,“ZHEIXIESHANGSHIDEYOUXIGONGSINANDAOJIUSHIWEILEQUANQIANZOUREN”。BIJING,BANGYANGDELILIANGZONGSHIRANGRENXINYOUYUJI。

CHUQUCHIXUYINGLINENGLI,ZIBENSHICHANGDUIYOUXIGAINIANGUHAIYOUNAXIEJIEDINI? SHOUXIANSHIZHONGGUODEZHENGCE,YOUXIYIZHIBEIFUMUSHIWEIWEIXIEHAIZIJIANKANGCHENGZHANGDEHONGSHUIMENGSHOU,SHEHUIYULUNDUIYOUXIFAZHANDEZHENGLUNYIZHIPOYOUZHENGYI,JINGUANZHONGGUODEYOUXIYIJINGSHIBEIYANGELENDUODEBANBEN,JINGUANZHENGFUBUDUANSANLINGWUSHENDECHUTAIGEZHONGZHENGCE,YOUXISIHUCONGLAISHIXINGZOUZAIZHULIUYISHIDEBIANYUAN。QICI,YOUXIGONGSIDEHENGXIANGYANSHENNENGLI。BIRUZAOQIDESHENGDAYOUXIYONGHUGUOYI,CENGJINGCHANGSHIGUOYOUXIYONGHUQUTUOZHANZHOUBIANCHANYE,BIRUDIANSHANG。YIGEHELIDECHANGJINGSHIWANYOUXIDEYONGHU,TEBIESHINEIXIEYOUXIZHAINANFUNV,JINGCHANGWOZAIJIALIHUOZHEWANGBA,DAYOUXIZHIYUKENDINGMEISHIJIANSHOUSHIZIJI,NEIMEQUWANGSHANGMAIMAILINGSHI,GOUGOUWUSHIYIGEHENZIRANDESHIQING。CHENTIANQIAOJIUSHITUHEYIHAODIANHEZUOHOU,DANSHIXIAOGUOHENCHA。YOUXIDEYONGHUYITUTEBIEZHIBAI,JIUSHILAIYOUXIDE,BUSHIYOUXI+GOUWUDE。SUOYI,DAYOUXIYONGHUQITADESHENGYI,JIBENHENNAN。HAIYOUDANGNIAN,SHIYUZHUZHUZI51SHEQUDEYIXIEXIANGFA,DOUSHIJIYUPANGDAYONGHUJICHUSHANGDEMEIHAOYUANJING。

超级大满贯BUGUO,YEYOUHENGXIANGTUOZHANZUODEBIJIAOHAODE,BIRUWANMEISHIJIECHIYUFENG,BAYUANBENFUSHUWANMEISHIJIEDEZIGONGSIWANMEIYINGSHIZUODACHENGYIGEDULIDEZIJIGERENKONGGUDEGONGSI,ZIJISASHOUBUGUANYOUXI,QUANSHENXINQUWANYINGSHILE。

JINSANNIANLAI,MEIZIBENSHICHANGDUIYOUXIGAINIANGUSHITIELEXINDELENGMO,SHIYINGLVPUBIANZAI5BEIZUOYOU,YOUXIGONGSIDECHENGJIAOLIANGYEXIANGDANGDIMI。ZHEIYERANGDINGFENGSHANGSHIDERENRENZAOYANG,SUIRANSHOURUYIBANYISHANGLAIZIWANGYEYOUXI,DANSHIBUNENGSHUOZIJISHIYOUXIGONGSI,ZUIHOUWAIMEITONGYIDINGXINGCHENGZHIWEIchina facebook。

触控显然还是深谙此道的。在准备IPO的时候,就知道了这一点,因此搞来了游戏引擎的概念。触控的思路是基于这个引擎,未来所有大大小小的公司,可以通过这个游戏引擎顺利的开发游戏,这个可以不收费,触控希望通过这个游戏引擎来做成平台,黏住游戏开发商,在这个平台上可以开枝散叶,收取各种增值服务也是顺水行舟。最不济自己做发行代理业务,这些产品也可以近水楼台。

QIEBUSHUO,XIANZAISHIMIANSHANGHAIMEIYOUKAOYOUXIYINQINGSHANGYEHUADEGONGSIBA,ZAIKEHUDUANWANGYOUSHIDAI,YOUXIYINQINGYESHIYIZHIBEITUICHONGDEGAINIAN,NIHUIKANDAOGEZHONGYOUXIJIESHAOSHIYONGSHENMEYOUXIYINQINGKAIFADE,GUONEIYOUXIEYOUXIGONGSISHENZHIZIZHUYANFALEYOUXIYINQING,YEJIUSHILIYONGKAIYUANDEYINQING,ZIJIHUANDIANPIHUANDIANLIAO。WOJIANXIN,ZHEITAOLUZIRUGUOBEICHUKONGWANHAOLE,KEYIKANDAOBIANDIKAIHUADEYIDONGYOUXIYINQING,JIUBUBISHUOTENGXUNLE。

三、游戏格局已定

超级大满贯WOBURENWEIYIDONGYOUXIYIJINGDAOLEHONGHAISHENZHIXUEHAILE。XIANGFAN,XIANZAIJUTOUMENKAISHIFALI,TENGXUN、YOUPINGTAIDEFAXINGSHANG(QIHU360、BAIDUXI、ALIXIDENG)、YUNYINGSHANGYIJIXUNIYUNYINGSHANG、SHANGSHIWANGYOUGONGSIDENGHAIFANGXINGWEIAI。

ZHISUOYIBATENGXUNDANLINCHULAI,SHIYINWEIZHEIJIAGONGSIZAIGUOQUDESHINIANLI,GANDIAOLESHEQUYOUXIJUTOULIANZHONG、GANDIAOLEWANGYOUJUTOUSHENGDA、WANGYIDENG,YIDONGSHIDAIYOUPINGTAI、YONGHU、CHANPIN(WEIXIN)DENGZHONGDUOZIYUANDETENGXUNJUEDUISHIWEILAIYIDONGYOUXIDEBAZHU,ZAITENGXUNDEYOUXISHIJIELI,“NIYAOMEGENWOWAN,YAOMEWORANGNIMEIFAWAN。”JIUYOU《JINGWUTUAN》、SHIJITIANCHENG《CSonline》、《PAOPAOKADINGCHE》、TAOMI《MOERZHUANGYUAN》、《SANGUOSHA》DENGDENGYOUXI(SHUWOJIYILIDABURUQIAN),BEIQQYIGEGEJIAOSI。TENGXUNZAIDAILIYOUXIFANGMIANDENENGLIYERANGQITAGONGSIWANGCHENMOJI。DANGRANXUANZEHAOXIFENSHICHANGYIDINGYOUJIQIAOHEJIYU,DANSHITENGXUNNEIBUBUCHENGWEIDEGUIDING,YIKUANYOUXIMEIYOUGUO20WANZAIXIANJIUSHISHIBAIDEXUNYAN,RANGQITAYOUXIGONGSIXIUSHABUYI。SHUODAODIZHEIYIJINGBUSHIDAILINENGLIDEWENTILE,ERSHIPINGTAIBENSHENYUNYINGYIJIFENFADENENGLIDENG。YOURENHUIZHIYI,TENGXUNMEIYOUGANSISHENGDA、JUREN、CHANGYOUDENG,XIAOHUOBANMEN,NEISHIHOUDETENGXUNHAIMEIYOUDAGUIMODEWANGYOUJINJUN,BISHIHAISHILAOQIDESHENFEN,ZHEIXIEGONGSIDESHANGSHIGANXIEHAIMEIYOULAIDEJIZHANGDADETENGXUN。ZHEIXIENIAN,ZHEIXIEYOUXIGONGSIDESHICHANGFENEZHUBUYASUO,YINGSHOUZHUBUXIAHUA,TENGXUNYESHIGONGBUKEMEIDE。HENNANXIANGXIANG,ZAIYIDONGDUANYOUZHEQQHEWEIXINDETENGXUN,BUCHIDIAOYIBANYISHANGDEJIANGSHAN,HUIRANGRENFEIYISUOSIDE。

超级大满贯ZAIKANQIHU360,ZHUYAOSHOURUJIUSHILAIZIGUANGGAOHEYOUXI,WEILEBAOZHUQIBUZUOCAIPANYUANHEYUNDONGYUANDEJIAOSE,GANDIAOLEBUTINGHUADEYOUJIU,HOUZHEDELAOBANLIULIANGYESHIYIGEHOUXIANDAIZHUYIDE“LVBU”,ZUIJINSHIMOUHUAJIEQIAOAGUSHANGSHI。QIHU360DESILUHENDUI,MUQIANDELIULIANGHEYONGHUZIYUAN,ZUYIYONGLAIZUOFENFA,ERQIEHUODEHENHAO,JINGCHANGZHIDIANJIANGSHANDEZHOUHONGYIKEBUXIANGLUOXIASHENMEBABINGJITAREN。ZHIYUYUNYINGSHANGHEXUNIYUNYINGSHANG,TAMENDOUSHIZHANGZHEZIJIDEYONGHULIANGHEPANGDADELIULIANGGUANDAO,SPSHIDAI,ZHEIXIEDOUSHIZHUANDEPENMANBOMAN,YIDONGYOUXISHIDAI,TAMENBUYANGUOBAMAO,YEHENNANSHUODEGUOQU,BIJINGYOUJINGYAN,YOUJIADI。HAIYOUNEIXIEYIJINGSHANGSHIDEYOUXIGONGSI,YOUDUIWU,YOUZIBEN,YOUJINGYAN,PCSHANGWANZHUANDESHIQING,TAMENZIRENWEISHOUJIXIAOPINGSHANGYEBUHUICHANAQU。

超级大满贯YINCI,CHENHAOZHIQINGCHUZUOWEIFAXINGDAILIYEWU,MEIYOUZIJIDEPINGTAI、MEIYOUZIJIHEXINDECHANPINSHIBUXINGDE。YINWEIYONGHUSHIYOUXIDEYONGHU,JINTIANYINWEIBUYUDARENLIUZAILECHUKONG,MINGTIANYINWEIZAITENGXUNWANDAOLEBUYUDAREN3QULETENGXUN。ZHIYOUZHENZHENGYOUHEXINJINGZHENGLIDEGONGSICAINENGHUOXIAQU,CAINENGZAIMUQIANJUTOULINLIDESHIJIELI,ZHAODAOZIJIDEYIPIANTIANKONG。ZHEIYESHICHUKONGQIANGDIAOYOUXIYINQINGDEYUANYIN,BUGUO,WOBUKANHAO。